HOME > Basketball

1.8% probability of winning the No. 1 pick! The Mavericks are against the will of heaven and change their fate, Flag became a "award of alliance"?

6:12pm, 17 May 2025【Basketball】

This year's NBA draft draw was a real "script kill" - the Jazz, Hornets and Wizards played badly for the whole season, and even admitted the loss and fine, but they didn't get all the top three picks. Instead, the Mavericks, who just sent Doncic away and entered the playoffs, won the No. 1 pick with a 1.8% chance (the fourth lowest in history), and were happy to be the "Son of the United States" Flag.

Harrison was so happy in front of the TV that he danced and danced. Cuban sent a crazily congratulatory message, and the Mavericks fans suddenly "Farewell to the best" from "Season is a nightmare" - this plot is more exciting than a time travel novel.

1.8% probability? Netizen: Is this alliance compensation, or is it a "unspoken rule"?

To be honest, the probability of 1.8% is more difficult than winning the lottery. Magic (93), Cavaliers (2014), and Bulls (2018) have won the No. 1 pick with a lower probability, but that is all scripts of "waiting for superstars" - Magic (and O'Neal, the Cavaliers and Wiggins (in fact, it's just waiting for James to return), and Bulls and Ross. This time the Mavericks are very similar to "compensation": Doncic, who had just sent away the alliance's storefront, gave Flag the next son of the United States to balance it.

The US media directly played with the joke Xiao Hua: "Send Luca to New York, and we will give you Flag." What's more coincidental is that James said before on the show: "The Cavaliers won the No. 1 pick, and I knew they wanted to keep me in their hometown." Everyone understands the "unspoken rules" of the league, but they just don't say it out loud.

For the bad team, this is too heartbreaking - the small ball market is unattractive, and they can only turn over by taking the draft, and as a result, they get the water from the bamboo basket. The Jazz General Manager comforted himself: "We have a 14% chance of not being able to draw the top scorer, and an 86% chance of being normal." But everyone knows that this is a helpless joke.

Flag: The "perfect sword demon" was pinched out by the game. The Mavericks picked up the talent of

Flag, which is not an exaggeration to describe it as "perverted" - 2 meters in shoes, 06, 2 meters in arm span, 17 meters in shoulders, long legs, running and jumping are not inferior to black people, changing defenses to cover the entire game, projection, ending, and passing are all top-notch in the same age group. In his freshman season, he averaged 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.3 caps, and ranked first in the team in 5 statistics, and was completely a "Hexagon Warrior".

Put him into the current Mavericks, he can form a three-high lineup with Davis and Lively. At critical moments, Davis and Flag can also partner with the inside, and the athletic ability and defense coverage are directly full. The second lineup also includes Gafford, PJ, and Marshall, and the deep league in the frontcourt.

But the problem is also: Davis clearly plays four, and Lively is still young, which is definitely worth training. Then Flag may be pushed to the 3rd position, but he is more suitable for the inside. Kidd may have to reduce the frequency of the double towers and sacrifice Lively's playing time - but "happy troubles" is better than lack of resources.

Mavericks' next step: make up for the defender, wait for Irving to come back to the championship

Mavericks' talent is now exploded in the frontcourt, but the back line is too weak - Irving cannot come back in a short time, and Dinwiddie is embarrassed. Harrison has to use the frontcourt chips to exchange for an instant defender to balance the lineup. When Irving comes back, this combination of "Fragr + Dark Eyebrow + Irving" will definitely disrupt the game in the West.

Other teams: The Spurs 76ers secretly enjoyed the fun, and the Nets collapsed again

The Spurs drew the second place, 76ers Tanhua - The Spurs may have Antetokounmpo, paired with Wenban and Fox; the 76ers exchanged the No. 4 position with the Tanhua lottery, and the Big Three will definitely be able to make a move if they are healthy. The worst thing is the Nets. I thought they could grab Flag, but they only got the No. 8 draw, and I guess they could only negotiate a contract with Kumingga during the offseason.

The charm of the NBA has always been "accident" and "script" The Mavericks draw the No. 1 pick, some criticize the "blackness of the league", and some praise "The bad luck comes." But for Flag, joining a championship team rather than playing bad team is the best environment for growth. In the future, the Mavericks have an explosive talent in the frontcourt. As long as the back line is filled, they will definitely return to the championship ranks.

This may also tell all teams: playing bad may not necessarily pay off, but work hard (even if it is temporarily low), and fate may give you a more surprising gift.