Lotto draw winner & loser: Spurs 76ers also won a big victory, and the letters are even more unbalanced if they go to the West

(The original text was published on May 13, and the author is Andy Bailey in the open-air stands. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views)

Three months after the most shocking and incredible deal in NBA history sent Doncic from the Mavericks to the Lakers, the Mavericks won the No. 1 pick in this year's draft with a probability of 1.8% (!!!). They now have the chance to recruit Cooper Flag, a team that already has Davis, Irving and several top-ranking role players who helped Doncic reach the Finals last year.

The Mavericks are undoubtedly the biggest winner of the lottery draw this year, but they are by no means the only beneficiary. There are also many losers worth paying attention to. Andy Bailey in the open-air stands a list of the most obvious winners and losers of this year's lottery draw:

Winners: Nick Harrison and the Mavericks

Although ESPN's Bob Myers believes that the public opinion storm caused by the Doncic deal put too much pressure on the Mavericks and their general manager Nick Harrison, it must be noted that Harrison did contribute to the most puzzling deal in NBA history. All the Mavericks' attempts to defend the deal by all official (and unofficial) personnel made the situation worse. The past three months have been a disaster for the Mavericks, and they eventually have a slim probability of winning the No. 1 pick. But it was this slim probability that miraculously became reality.

Given some of Harrison's previous remarks about Doncic's trade, people would not be surprised even if he claims that all this (including winning the No. 1 pick) is in the plan. At least on this night, you really can't blame him, and the Mavericks took away the greatest fruit of victory. Of course, in the long run, this may not be a sure profit and no loss. Even Flag's probability of growing into a star who averages nearly 30+10+10 per game and competes for MVP all year round is slim. But at this moment, Harrison and the Mavericks management deserve some applause for this almost incredible luck.

Loser: The real teams (especially the Jazz)

Jazz with 17 wins and 65 losses, the Wizards with 18 wins and 64 losses, and the Hornets with 19 wins and 63 losses, each entered the lottery draw with 14% of the No. 1 pick, and the probability of winning the lottery for the other teams is statistically slim. However, all of the above three teams eventually fell out of the top 3 picks. Cooper Flag obviously missed them, and Es Bailey and Dylan Harper may also miss the match. No rookie will be a sure-fire superstar, but the above three are the candidates who are regarded as the closest to that definition among this rookie this year. These teams with less than 20 games can only hope to find a cornerstone genius in other picks.

Historical data shows that it is more difficult to find real gold in areas outside the top 3 rankings. For the Jazz, the pick-up plunge was particularly bitter. The team, which has remained competitive for decades, started the reconstruction three years ago by trading Mitchell and Gobert. The draft assets accumulated in the original trading have now been consumed, but the Jazz have not found a real team-building core. This lottery draw was the Jazz's best chance, but the ranking was not rising but falling, and finally only won the fifth pick.

Winner: San Antonio Spurs

After two years of winning the lottery draw from Vinban Yama, the Spurs have jumped to the second place this year. Although the most direct result may be that the Spurs use the second pick to choose Harper or Pele, and partner with Wenban Yama and the team's young lineup, the possibility of a deal has suddenly magnified at this moment. Earlier on the day of the draw, ESPN reporter Shams sparked public opinion: "For the first time in his career, Antetokounmpo said that he was open to leaving the Bucks and switching to other teams."

Even without this second draw, the Spurs have long been regarded as Antetokounmpo's potential next home, and now they have almost become the leader. The Spurs hold a large number of expired contracts that match salary, which can package multiple future draft picks with this year's second picks, and the duo of Antetokounmpo and Vinban Yama will undoubtedly become the most imaginative combination in the league.

Loser: The balance between the east and west of the alliance

The chronic disease of imbalance in the east and west of the alliance has lasted for more than twenty years. Since the 2003-04 season (the first season after Jordan finally retired), the winning rate of the Eastern Conference team against the Western Conference team is only 44%, and the All-Squad Mid-Western players account for nearly 2/3 of the same period. The journey of Western teams to reach the finals has always been more difficult, and the imbalance has even become increasingly serious in recent years.

The Spurs won the No. 1 pick in 2023 and chose the lower Yama. The Mavericks just got the chance to choose Flag, and during this period, only the Hawks won the No. 1 pick in the recognized draft pick in the Little Year. Rissache is expected to grow into a top 3D forward and may even be selected as an All-Star. Wenban Yama is already a league-level figure, while Flag is regarded as a potential stock to be selected for the All-Star and the best defensive team all year round in the future.

No matter how Antetokounmpo joins the Western Conference team, even if this extreme situation is not considered, the widening gap between the east and west will urgently need attention from the league. When the league expands its troops to 32 teams, the allocation of some Western strong teams into the East may alleviate the problem. But the current gap is so huge that the NBA may have to seriously consider abolishing the playoffs division ranking system.

Winner: Philadelphia 76ers

This season, the 76ers embiid, Maxi and Paul George started their journey, but this lineup finally played together for less than 300 minutes, and the net score was barely positive. In the end, they missed the playoffs when they were regarded as a favorite to compete for the championship in the offseason. The only comfort is that their defeat was exchanged for a lottery draw opportunity, and now the lottery result is even more unexpected. The 76ers also won a Tanhua lottery while saving the first round draw.

Similar to the Spurs, the 76ers suddenly had more (and better) choices this summer. They can add a dazzling star to Maxi and McCain, or operate more radically in the trading market, bringing experienced ready-to-fight power to dual-cores that are expected to recover. No matter which path is chosen, the 76ers holding the Tanhua lottery are in a far better position than the fifth pick he was originally in (if the top 6 picks fall, the draft pick will belong to the Thunder).

Winner or potential loser: Cooper Flag

As the no. 1 pick in this draft, especially when your template is regarded as a combination of Gerald Wallace and Jason Tatum, you are naturally the winner. This is indeed the case with Flag. Joining a team that is expected to make the playoffs in its rookie season is also a good deal on the surface. But this genius is about to play for. Just three months ago, he took the initiative to press the self-destruct button: he used his 25-year-old historical offensive core to return to the 32-year-old second-in-command who was plagued by injuries and had passed the peak. Although Davis is perhaps the best deputy in history, no matter how Harrison repeats “winning the championship with defense,” the deal has always lacked logical support.

Flag had to face a group of fans who had not yet stepped out of the shadow of Doncic's trade. It is extremely unfair to ask him to fill the void left by Doncic immediately, but the pressure on public opinion will not disappear. After the Mavericks won the No. 1 pick, ESPN's Perkins immediately asked Flag's "what is the difference between the performance on both offense and defense and Doncic." As long as you wear the Mavericks' robe, this kind of comparison will follow you like a shadow. Flag will also play under Coach Kidd, who is known for his poor training of newcomers. If he joins the Jazz, Wizards or Hornets, he could have locked in the treatment of core players who are more than 30 minutes a game. But in coach Kidd's rotation system, his rookie early-stage priority may even be behind PJ-Washington. While other teams may be worse for bad teams, the challenges facing wearing Mavericks jerseys may be more complicated.

Original text: AndyBailey

Compiled by: Li Taibai