40-year-old legend vs 17-year-old genius: The time paradox of the UEFA League final

Previous Summary

Portugal and Spain's "Iberian enemies" met again in the European League final! This "two teeth showdown" can be regarded as the ultimate collision between technical flow and efficiency faction, with a lot of highlights - Portugal wants to break the curse of being invincible against the West, while Spain wants to continue the glory of passing and controlling football. Who can laugh to the end? Let’s play a good plate!

Today's analysis

UEFA Nations League

Portugal vs Spain

Portugal

Portugal showed its top offense and defense conversion efficiency in the game 2-1 of the semi-finals: 17 shots (6 shots on the right), Concesan's world wave and Ronaldo's winning goal were both counterattack textbooks. New generation players João Neves (19 years old) and Gonzalo Ramos (22 years old) have a strong impact in the midfield and front line. They averaged 2.3 key passes and 1.8 successful passes per game, becoming the team's sharp blade for breaking the deadlock. Although Ronaldo's physical fitness has declined, his ability to end the key battle is still unsolvable - he directly participated in 6 goals in the last 5 national team games, especially when he played against Germany. He made a final victory in just 23 minutes after he appeared on the bench, showing the big heart of the "old fairy".

Portugal's 4231 formation can be called a "anti-counter weapon": Leo (speed 36km/h) and Mendes (average 3.1 crosses per game) on the wing, B Fee (average 1.5 straight passes per game) and B seat (average 2.8 passes per game) control the rhythm, while Ronaldo is ambushing the penalty area and waiting for a fatal blow. In addition, Portugal's set-piece tactical efficiency is extremely high. This season, the UEFA Nations League scored 5 goals through corner kicks and free kicks, accounting for 38% of the total goals. The Spanish defense line's success rate against high-altitude balls was only 62%, which may become the key to breaking the situation.

Portuguese midfield lacks tough interception players, and the combination of Neves and Palinia is averaging only 3.2 steals per game, and may fall into a passive position in the face of Spain's short pass penetration. In terms of defense, Diaz and Guedes' central defender partner was slow, and Germany used the ball behind him to create threats many times in the semi-finals. If targeted by Spanish wingers Yamal (speed 35km/h) and Nico Williams (2.5 breakthroughs per game), they may suffer a big loss.

Spain

In the semi-finals, Spain defeated France 5-4, with offensive creativity being full: Yamal (16 years old) scored twice, Nico Williams contributed 1 goal and 2 assists, Pedri and Olmer's midfield dual-core average pass success rate of 89%, and behind the 68% possession rate is a scalpel-like short pass penetration. Spain's tactical core is "combination of edge and middle" - the winger forms a local advantage with the midfield, and then tear through a straight pass or an inverted triangle cross. This season, the European League averaged 12.3 excellent opportunities per game, with offensive efficiency being the best in Europe.

Spain's defensive problems can be called "fatal injuries": 4 goals were conceded against France in the semi-finals, and the central defender combinations Pao Torres and Lenormann had weak awareness of assisting defense, and the speed of chasing back was insufficient when facing a fast counterattack. Right back Navas (37 years old) has a significant decline in physical fitness and may be targeted by Leo on Portugal's left. In addition, goalkeeper Unai Simon made frequent mistakes in the field goal, and he played fire dangers many times in the semi-finals to cause disasters. If he was pressed by Portugal at high pressure, it might become a breakthrough.

Comprehensive analysis

The referee of this game, Sandro Schaler, has a loose law enforcement style, and has only 2.1 yellow cards per game this season, and has a high tolerance for greater confrontation. This is extremely beneficial to Spain's pass-and-control style - reducing foul interruptions and ensuring offensive coherence; but it may be unfavorable to Portugal's counterattack tactics, because the referee may turn a blind eye to the pulling action of the defensive player, weakening the threat of Portugal's wing breakthrough.

has had 5 official encounters, with Portugal 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, of which the European League has played 1 draw and 1 loss in the last two encounters. However, Portugal performed strongly in the 2024 European League group stage, with 4 wins and 2 draws unbeaten in 6 games, while Spain only had 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the same period, and its condition was slightly inferior. More importantly, after Portugal reversed Germany in the semi-finals, morale and confidence were at its peak, while Spain beat France, but its defense issues were fully exposed and may be at a psychological disadvantage.

The mainstream institutions initially took Spain's -0.25 goals to reap water, and subsequently adjusted to -0.5 goals, showing that confidence in Spain has increased. In terms of large and small goals, the water from 2.5 goals rose to 3 goals, indicating that the game may be a goal battle. Combined with Spain's average of 2.8 goals per game and Portugal's average of 2.2 goals per game, the total number of goals in the game is expected to exceed 3 goals.

Overall, Spain's pass control system and young players' creativity are slightly better, and the referee style is conducive to them controlling the rhythm of the game. However, Portugal's counterattack efficiency and the key role of Ronaldo cannot be ignored. If the loopholes in Spain's defense line can be grasped, it is entirely possible to replicate the good reversal of the semi-finals.

005 Portugal vs Spain

Direction: Negative

Age: 1-3 0-2 2-3

Only personal interest prediction

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