European Super Cup!! British League Cup!! Double Championship Battle!

As the Champions League champion, Paris has shown a dominant performance this season: swept Inter Milan 5-0 in the Champions League final, Ligue 1 won three rounds ahead of schedule and achieved four consecutive championships, and defeated Juventus and other strong teams 4-0 in the preseason. Its offensive end is particularly outstanding, with core players such as Dembele (35 goals and 12 assists) and Kvaratschlia (5 goals and 3 assists in the Champions League) per game.

Although Tottenham participated as the Europa League champion, their overall performance was sluggish: the Premier League ranked 17th, hitting a record low, with only 2 wins in 6 preseason games and a defensive turnover rate of up to 22%, and averaging 2.67 goals in the last 6 games. The offensive end is even more silent, with only 0.67 goals per game in the last 6 games, and Son Heung-min lacks a stable scoring point after leaving the team. The main midfielders Madison and Kulusevsky were injured and short of 8 people, resulting in serious damage to the creativity of the midfield.

Paris main goalkeeper Donaluma was out of the election due to a contract dispute. New aid Schevalier played for Paris for the first time. His foot skills (passing success rate is 77%) meets Enrique's backcourt ball output requirements, but his save stability is doubtful when facing the top opponents. Although Tottenham goalkeeper Vicario performed well in the Europa League final, his recent continuous high-intensity offense may lead to psychological fluctuations.

The two sides have faced Paris in the last 5 times, with 3 wins and 2 draws and remained unbeaten, and the most recent Champions League double defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. Monte Carlo simulation shows that Paris' winning rate is 73.5%, Tottenham Hotspur is only 8.3%, Europe's average main winning odds are 1.42 (implicit probability 70.4%), and Asia's handicap is one/half goal (Paris has 1.25 goals), and the market is unanimously optimistic about Paris. Betfair data shows that the main winning trading volume accounts for 66.47%, but we need to be wary of the risk of inducing markets that may be implicit in large-scale transactions.

Paris' offensive efficiency (3.2 goals per game) is in stark contrast to Tottenham's defensive loophole (1.58 goals per game averaging away). Tottenham has only scored 4 goals in its last 6 games and was sealed 6 times, and lacked the means of breaking the block on the offensive end.

Birmingham relies on the defensive resilience during the League One upgrade (lost 0.8 goals per game), and the counterattack combination of new players Henry Guqiao and Stansfield posed a fatal threat. Its 19% counterattack conversion rate (third in the Championship) directly points to Sheffield's joint defense line's slow turn. Although Sheffield United has implemented a 4-3-3 high-pressure system, midfielders Abras and Shackleton have been absent for a long time, resulting in a 37% decrease in interception ability. The defense line was forced to use 18-year-old new player Binden due to McNally's injury, with a success rate of only 65%.

Birmingham's counter-attack efficiency (1.8 excellent chances per game) is in stark contrast to Sheffield United's defensive loophole (1.58 goals per game). The forward combination of Guqiao Henwu and Stansfield is expected to contribute to the goal, and Sheffield United may win a goal through Campbell's personal ability, but the overall strength gap still leads to a loss.

1-0: If Birmingham uses set pieces or counterattacks to win, and the defense line remains resilient in the light rain.

2-2: If Sheffield United strengthens crossing from the wing and improves the success rate of high-altitude top-square, it may create a draw.

Birmingham's defense line hidden dangers: The injury of Kolkz and Edwards may lead to a breakthrough on the left. Sheffield United winger Burroughs (2 goals and 1 assist in the preseason) needs to be guarded against.

Today's summary

Paris Saint-Germain vs Tottenham Hotspur

Win + Handicap 2:0 3:0 3:1 2 goals 3 goals 4 goals

Birmingham vs Sheffield United

Win + draw 1:0 2:1 2:2 1 goal 3 goals 4 goals