Opta predicts that Liverpool will be the most likely to enter the Champions League final, with Arsenal PSG behind

Hupu September 3rd data analysis company Opta calculated the popular teams entering the Champions League final this season by simulating expected points, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain ranked in the top three.

As the defending champion who defeated Inter Milan 5-0 in the final last season, Paris Saint-Germain is naturally regarded as a strong contender, but not the biggest favorite. Opta data shows that after investing more than 500 million euros in transfer funds, Liverpool has the highest probability of entering the finals (34.20%), and they are even predicted to be ranked first in the league stage again.

Paris ranked third with a 22.01% chance of advancing to the final, lagging behind Arsenal (27.29%) but leading Manchester City (16.93%) and Barcelona (16.57%). Paris will face Barcelona in the group stage, and its opponents in the same group include Atlanta, Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Tottenham Hotspur, Athletic Bilbao, Portugal Sports and Newcastle.

Opta predicts that Paris may score 14.77 points this season, ranking fifth behind Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea. This means the team will advance directly to the top 16 without having to compete for a place through the playoffs as they did last season.

The prospects for the other two French teams are relatively difficult. Monaco is expected to rank 21st (10.09 points) and needs to participate in the play-offs. The probability of entering the final is only 0.9%. The situation in Marseille is even less optimistic (0.4%), with a forecast ranking of 31st (expected points 8.38 points), and the group is out.

Opta predicts the top five favorite teams in the 2025-2026 Champions League final:

Liverpool 34.20%

Arsenal 27.29%

Paris Saint-Germain 22.01%

Manchester City 16.93%

Barcelona 16.57%