The Premier League Opening Game is back: Tottenham plays Burnley, the battle of revenge and rebirth is about to begin

1. Recent performance: Tottenham is in a state ups and downs, Burnley is ready to go

The 2025/26 Premier League opening game, the showdown between Tottenham and Burnley carries a double narrative - the home team Tottenham is experiencing the pain of reconstruction, and the visiting team Burnley returns to the top league as a newly promoted team. Tottenham only finished 17th in the league in the 2024/25 season, but qualified for the Champions League as the UEFA Champions League champion. The coaches in the new season have been changed to Danish coach Thomas Frank. The lineup sent away captain Son Heung-min and introduced new players such as Ghanaian attackers Kudus and Mattis Terr, intending to regain competitiveness through rejuvenation transformation. However, the performance of the preseason has fluctuated, with only 1 win, 4 draws and 1 loss in the last 6 games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9 goals, and conceding 1.5 goals per game. The loopholes in the defense have become a hidden danger. In the European Super Cup on August 14, 2025, Tottenham drew 2-2 with Paris Saint-Germain, and eventually lost in the penalty shootout, exposing the problem on the defensive end.

Burnley, as the runner-up of the English Championship last season, returned to the Premier League with a steady defensive counterattack tactic. Coach Kompany continues his coaching style, and the transfer market introduces Danish winger Bruen Larsen, Portuguese sports winger Marcus Edwards and midfielder Axel Tuanzebe to strengthen the breakthrough and defensive depth on the wing. In the preseason, the team showed resilience, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in the last 6 games, scoring 9 goals and conceding 8 goals, with a winning rate of 33%. In the away game, Burnley has achieved 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the last 6 games, scoring 13 goals and conceding 7 goals, with a winning rate of 50%, showing a certain away game ability.

2. Historical confrontation: Tottenham has the advantage in psychology, Burnley is eager to get revenge

The two sides have made in the last 10 confrontations, Tottenham has an absolute advantage with a record of 8 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw, with an average of 2.1 goals per game and conceded only 0.5 goals. In the 37th round of the Premier League on May 11, 2024, Tottenham reversed Burnley 2-1 at home. Van Devin's final victory in the 82nd minute directly led to Burnley's early relegation, and this game became a turning point in the grudges between the two teams. Burnley's last defeat to Tottenham is back to February 2022, when he won a 1-0 home win, but all three of the matches ended in failure, with obvious psychological disadvantages.

However, Burnley made a comeback with the promotion team, Kompany's tactical system has proven effective in the Championship, and Tottenham is in the running-in period of lineup, and new players such as Kudus have not yet fully integrated into the system, which adds variables to the game. Historical data shows that Tottenham has won a winning rate of 70% against newly promoted teams in the last 10 Premier League home games, but Burnley has conceded only 1.2 goals per game in the last five away games of the Premier League, and its defensive resilience cannot be underestimated.

3. Score prediction: Tottenham's small victory is expected, Burnley may create unpopularity

Comprehensive data model and tactical analysis, the probability of Tottenham winning in this game is 54%, and the probability of draw and away wins is 17% and 29% respectively. Tottenham has significant home advantage. The 4231 formation in the new season emphasizes breakthrough on the wing and midfield control. The offensive combination of Kudus and Madison has the ability to tear the defense, but the injury of Bentancur and Hill on the defensive end may weaken the intensity of the midfield interception. Burnley is expected to use a 5-4-1 defensive formation, creating murderous intent through Edwards' wing speed and Tuanzebe's set-piece threat, but Amduni's torn cruciate ligament on the front line caused a sharp reduction in firepower on the offensive end.

AI score prediction is 3-1. Tottenham is expected to get a good start with its home momentum and lineup depth, but if Burnley can steal 1 goal through set pieces or counterattack, the game may be in a stalemate. In the unpopular scene, if Burnley replicates the 1-0 victory in 2022, it will rely on the brave performance of goalkeeper Trafford and the collective downturn of Tottenham's forward line. The probability is low but there is a possibility.

Summary: In addition to the first match of the new season, there is more profound meaning.

This game is not only the starting point of the two teams' new season, but also the first test of Tottenham's reconstruction results and Burnley's determination to revenge. Tottenham needs to stabilize the morale of the army through victory, proving that Frank's tactical reform direction is correct; Burnley needs to show the fighting spirit of the promoted team and accumulate confidence in the relegation battle. Regardless of the result, this showdown will set the tone for the competitive landscape of the new Premier League season - whether traditional powerhouses will regain their strength or dark horse teams will subvert expectations, the answer will be announced at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.