【Today’s Football】【Daily Job】Osaka Sakura VS Niigata Swan【Finn Super】Helsinki VS Alves

001 [Japan Job] Osaka Sakura VS Niigata Swan

1. The core basics are compared with the team's strength and positioning. Osaka Sakura's overall strength is significantly higher than Niigata Swan. The latter has been in the middle and lower reaches of the league for a long time and is deeply involved in the relegation zone (4 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses this season). Osaka Sakura has a very high home win rate (winning all of the last 6 home games), while Niigata Swans has performed weakly away (losing 5 games in the last 9 away games, conceding nearly 1.3 goals per game).

‌Tactical Style and Looplets‌

‌Osaka Sakura‌: The recent tactics have shifted to strengthening the penetration of the middle (the number of passes in the middle has increased by 25%), but it has led to an increase in the defensive gap - being directly blocked by the opponent in the last 3 games to create 4 single shots, and the efficiency of defensive midfield interception has decreased by 12%.

‌Nigata Swan‌: Relying on fast counterattacks but with single tactics, frequent mistakes on the defensive end; he recently tried to press 10 meters in front of the defense line, which expanded the gap behind him, conceded 3 goals in his last two away games. Its right back Tomoya Fujii's lack of speed is a clear shortcoming.

‌Key injury impact‌

Osaka Sakura left-back Kaneko Daitsu was absent, and the threat of attacking on the left dropped by 40% after substitute Kyoto Kimoto appeared; there were three other long-term casualties (including forward Danilo).

Niigata Swans midfielder Sho Matsumoto returns after being released from ban, and his appearance can create more offensive opportunities for the team.

2. Analysis of the winner and loser

Osaka Sakura's advantages‌

Home ball possession rate is as high as 61%, which can dominate the rhythm of the game.

Niigata Swans have a fragile away defense, especially when dealing with high pressure.

‌Nigata Swans' counterpoint point‌

‌setting ball‌: The success rate of header competition is 68%, while Osaka Sakura conceded 5 goals in its last five home set pieces, which may become the key to the upset.

‌Counterattack Efficiency‌: When facing teams with high ball possession rates away, the counterattack conversion rate reaches 23% (8 percentage points higher than the league average).

3. Score prediction:

‌Basics: Offense and Defensive Balance‌Although Osaka Sakura has the advantage in strength, the middle defensive loopholes and Niigata Swan's set-piece threat may offset some of the advantages. Its left offense is weakened due to injuries and it may be difficult to win a large score.

‌Basics 2: Historical confrontation and data verification‌The two sides drew 2-2 for the first time this season, and Niigata Swan has the ability to break the deadlock in counterattacks and set pieces. Combined with the frequency of Osaka Sakura's recent 2-1 score and the number of goals conceded by Niigata Swans away, this score has the highest probability.

‌Summary: Osaka Sakura has obvious home advantage, but the defensive hidden dangers restrict a big victory; Niigata Swans counterattack and set pieces are threatening, and it is highly likely to end with a small loss. ‌

In this game, Chow Osaka Sakura is optimistic about playing at home.

Age: 21.20.30

002 [Finn Super League] Helsinki vs. Elves

Helsinki currently ranks fourth in the Finn Super League with 10 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 32 points. He has 3 wins and 2 losses in the last five league rounds. He averaged 2.6 goals on the offensive end but has a conceded rate of 1.4 goals per game on the defensive end, showing the characteristics of strong offense and weak defense. Elves ranked second with 11 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, with 35 points, and remained unbeaten in the last 5 games, with 4 wins and 1 draw. During this period, he averaged 2.2 goals and conceded only 0.8 goals, making his offense and defense balance better. In the first leg of the two teams this season, Elves defeated Helsinki 3-0 at home, and has won 2 wins and 1 draw in the past three matches in history.

Key tactics comparison

Helsinki's hidden dangers midfielder Canelopolos was suspended, and central defender Oshonetsi was injured (kneece), resulting in a decline in the interception ability of the midfield and a loophole in set pieces defense. The team relies on crosses from the wing (18 crosses per game, 29% success rate), but the efficient wingback defense against Elves (5.3 interceptions per game) may be limited.

Elves' advantage adopts a 4-2-3-1 formation, with forward Essonba (6 goals and 8 assists) and Salminen (10 goals), and are good at creating threats through rib penetration. The midfield control is outstanding (54% ball possession per game), and the main midfielder Sar has released the ban and returned, which will enhance the hardness of the confrontation.

Data support conclusion

Helsinki has 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss at home in the last 10 games, but has only 1 win and 2 losses against the top 3 teams in the league.

Elves' unbeaten rate on the road is 80%, and 74% of the conceded goals come from set pieces, which happens to target Helsinki's tactical shortcomings

score prediction and basis Helsinki's strong home momentum (home winning rate this season is 62.5%), but the defensive line may be targeted by the opponent. Elves counterattack efficiency is the first in the league (conversion rate is 22%), and 60% of the goals in historical confrontations are concentrated at the critical point of physical fitness in the 60-75 minutes.

Potential variables: If Helsinki scores first, it may intensify the open attack and the score may be expanded to 2-2; if Alves scores early, he will tend to win with a 1-3 defensive counterattack.

In this game, the Chow Egg is optimistic that Elves will not be defeated away

Age: 12.22.13