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After the Pacers in the NBA Finals, the probability of winning has reached this number

2:07pm, 19 June 2025【Basketball】

On the fierce stage of the NBA Finals, the Thunder and the Pacers' competition feasted the fans. On June 17, the Thunder defeated the Pacers 120-109 at home, leading 3-2 with a big score, and took the lead to the championship point first. The victory of this battle at Tianwang Mountain not only greatly boosted the morale of Thunder, but also caused subtle and critical changes in the probability of winning the championship between both sides.

Thunder: The advantage is in hand, the probability soars

Thunder's prospects for winning the championship are bright after winning the battle of Tianwang Mountain. According to statistics, in the history of the NBA Finals, after maintaining a total score of 2-2 in the first 31 first four games, the team that won the Battle of Tianwang Mountain won the championship 23 times, with a probability of winning the championship as high as 74%. Many American media have also made predictions, such as Kalshi's probability of winning the championship, the Thunder is far ahead with a high probability of 80%. ESPN predicts that the Thunder's probability of winning the G5 is as high as 58.4%. The well-known media StatMamba predicts that the Thunder's huge advantage over the Pacers in the regular season is as high as 85%. The excellent performance of the

team is a solid support for the high probability of winning the championship. Alexander, the star of the team, can be regarded as the decisive force of the team, and he showed strong dominance in the game. In the crucial fourth quarter, when the Pacers frantically chased the points to narrow the gap to 2 points, Alexander stepped forward and stabilized the Thunder with stable scores and excellent organization. He contributed 31 points and 10 assists throughout the game. Whether it is a mid-range jump shot or a breakthrough and killing free throw, he outputs high scores efficiently and stably, which is the absolute cornerstone of the Thunder's offense. The outbreak of the young core Jaylen Williams is equally surprising. He made 14 of 25 shots in this game, scoring a career-high 40 points, and also scored 6 rebounds and 4 assists, contributing key performances on both offense and defense. Jaylen Williams responded with a tough score when the Pacers climaxed, especially his three-pointer, hitting the Pacers' morale many times at critical moments. Players such as Dort, Wiggins, Wallace also exploded collectively. Dort's defense and outside firepower, as well as the energy and scoring provided by the bench, formed a situation of blooming in multiple points, allowing the Pacers' defense to lose sight of one thing.

Pacers: Surviving in desperate situations, there is still hope

Although they are behind 2-3 in a big score and are at a disadvantage, the Pacers are not without opportunities. They have shown strong resilience this season, but they won't be beaten easily. In previous games, the Pacers also had excellent performances. For example, in G3, they scored a 23-11 attack wave in the final quarter, defeating the Thunder 116-107, and broke 6 final records in one fell swoop. The 49 substitute was the third highest in the finals since 1997. Mathering scored 27 substitute, shining the whole game.

Although Halliburton, the star of the star, was in a sluggish state due to injury in the Battle of Tianwang Mountain, scored only 4 points in 0 of 6 shots, his performance throughout the season and in the series is obvious to all. He is the organizer and engine of the Pacers' offense, and he can contribute 18 points and 7 assists per game. His passing vision and control of the game rhythm can drive the entire team's offense. As long as he can regain his form in subsequent competitions, it will greatly enhance the Pacers' competitiveness.

Sica and Turner also have certain advantages in the interior. Xika has excellent physical fitness and rich offensive methods. In the game against the Thunder, he has used his personal abilities to play in the inside many times. Turner is the defensive gate of the inside. His franchise protection and rebounding ability can support the team on the defensive end, and also contribute stably to scoring on the offensive end. If they can play their positioning advantage more resolutely in the next game and use the weak links of the Thunder's inside line to launch an attack, the Pacers still have a chance to drag the series into a tiebreak and even achieve a reverse win.

The Thunder currently has a clear advantage in winning the championship probability, but the basketball game is full of uncertainty. The Pacers' resilience and player strength allow them to have the possibility of a Jedi counterattack. In the next game, whether the Thunder launches the final impact on the championship or the Pacers launches a crazy counterattack, it will bring a tense and exciting visual feast to the fans, let us wait and see the final destination of the championship.

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