ESPN talks about 6 X factors that affect the second round of trends: Carlisle s experience & Butler s away performance

As we all know, the intensity of the playoffs will be upgraded, but there are still a lot of subtle details. It is these subtleties that determine whether the team can go further or get out early. The stronger the opponent, the more fierce the competition, the smaller the room for fault tolerance. Superstar performance often makes a mark on the series, but what really defines the game is often the subtle factors - which may come from the outbreak of a surprise, the coach's tactical arrangement, or a detail that affects the trend of the key game. Brian Windhorst of ESPN website analyzed 6 X factors that could affect the second round of playoff trends: Health of the Celtics in the last five series, the Celtics have had almost no real challenge. But the players who have appeared on the injury roster could be a key variable in the next six weeks (if they can go that far). Last spring, Porzingis played only seven of the Celtics' 19 playoff games, but his 20 points in the first finals were crucial. This season, defensive champion Ju Holiday's lowest appearances in four years and missed three first-round games against the Magic due to a hamstring injury. The injury issues with Jaylen Brown (knee) and Tatum (wrist) have caused them to lose some games this year. Perhaps the only obstacle facing defending champion Celtics is the length of their injury list. Coach Carlisle's experience In a game of losing to the Knicks last year, the Pacers coach was expelled from the game. After the game, he screened 78 video clips with staff all night to submit to the league office for questioning the referee's call. This seemingly ordinary complaint is actually a deep strategy that consumes the opponent (whether it is the referee or the opponent's team). The penalty standards for that round of the series finally became balanced, with the deeper and healthier Pacers eliminating the Knicks after seven fierce battles and advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2014.

Coach Carlisle has coached more than 150 playoff games, and the counterattack to the Knicks last year was not the first time he led the team to an upset. Do you still remember the 2011 NBA Finals? Coach Carlisle led the Mavericks to the Western Conference playoffs and defeated the Heat in James' first season with South Beach. The head coach always showed accurate on-the-spot adjustments and tactical polishing skills. The Pacers will play as a low-court seed team in each subsequent series, and Coach Carlisle is already familiar with this.

Butler's fearless spirit on the away game

"Playseason Jimmy" is the real winner. When he scored 20 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in the Warriors' tiebreaker against the Rockets, it should be no surprise that anyone familiar with his life and death history should be. In the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals tiebreak, Butler scored 28 points at home to lead the Heat to advance. In the playoffs of the same year, he eliminated the Bucks with his 42-point away performance. In the first round of 2022, Butler scored 32 points in Philadelphia and sent away 76ers; in the second round, G6, he handed in the Celtics with epic data of 47 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals at home, becoming one of the most shining moments in the playoffs that year. The more critical the away game of the playoffs, the more dazzling Butler's value becomes.

Mitchell's shot count

The Cavaliers star ranked 7th in the playoff history with an average of 27.9 points per game (at least 50 playoff games). He just set a record of 30+ points in the first game of eight consecutive games in the series, breaking the previous record with Michael Jordan. Mitchell is indeed good at scoring at high pressure moments, but there is a subtle boundary between him and real high productivity. In the first game of the series against the Pacers, although Mitchell scored 33 points as usual, he spent 30 shots. The Cavaliers have been behind the game, and Mitchell desperately tried to save the team, which has become the norm in his career.

When Mitchell made no less than 30 shots in the playoffs, the team's record was only 1 win or 5 losses (including the just-concluded G2, 1 win or 6 losses). For example, last year's playoffs, he scored 50 points at home in the Magic but used 36 shots, and the team still lost. In the second round of the series, Mitchell made only 1 of 11 three-pointers. When Mitchell made no less than 11 three-pointers in a single game in the playoffs, the team's record was a dismal 2 wins and 7 losses. Last year, he fell into this pattern twice against Celtics Mitchell, and both ended in defeat.

Jarden McDaniels' defense

The Timberwolves forward played his best career performance averaged 17.4 points per game and 57% shooting percentage in the first round of the Lakers. But the fundamental reason why he can sign a $130 million contract is defense, and he will become the defensive core that limits Warriors Curry in the second round. According to ESPN statistics, McDaniels' 161 rounds against Curry in the regular season is not only the highest number of defensive matches against Curry this season, but also the third highest number of single defenses Curry has encountered in the past decade. This season, Curtain made a total of 53 shots against McDaniels, with an effective shooting percentage of only 53%, far lower than its lowest season average of 57%. The 2.06-meter striker can form a natural barrier with his lateral movement speed and body shape, but Curry's unball run (3.2 kilometers in tiebreak with the Rockets) will put McDaniels in a severe test throughout the series.

Nuggets' offensive speed

No one will regard the Nuggets as a "fast-paced" team, perhaps because the slow style of the star Jokic's play is deeply rooted in people's hearts, but the Nuggets' speed will surprise you. In fact, the Nuggets lead the league this season with a fast break average of 20.1 points per game. Jokic does not often initiate or participate in fast attacks, but he is well aware of the principle of "the ball is faster than the person". Accurate long passes throughout the game are the Nuggets' offensive trump card. This trait is particularly important against the Thunder, although the latter is a strong defensive team at halftime, but he is helpless in converting offense. The Thunder averaged 12.3 points per game through conversion offense this season, with the league's conversion defensive efficiency at the bottom.

Original text: Brian Windhorst

Compiled by: Li Taibai