Summer without a maximum salary! Is the free market down?

The past NBA offseason will be accompanied by some explosive level transaction signing news, but in the free market in 2025, it will be particularly deserted.

Looking back at that time, James joined the Heat and Durant airborne the Warriors, these decisions have greatly changed the league structure. But for this summer, ESPN famous reporter Shams spoke last year that 2025 will be the craziest offseason in history. Now it seems that famous reporters will inevitably be slapped in the face.

The biggest surprise this year is that no free agent has received a maximum salary contract against the backdrop of a 10% increase in salary cap.

Referring to the current results, the maximum salary in the free market in 2025 was unexpectedly given to the Timberwolves' sixth man, Naz Reed. Although his five-year contract amount of 125 million is not small, it is indeed a bit mediocre compared to the long contracts of superstars who often cost hundreds of millions of dollars in the past.

Of course, it does not mean that the team is unwilling to spend money. The most direct reason is that they have already left people in advance before the players enter the market. Starting from the second day after the finals, the league teams began to renew their contracts with their own players without stopping. For example, Irving, Harden, Randall and others are all in contract year in 2024, but they have long been firmly staying in the original team.

Based on the data, more than 70% of the guarantee contracts signed in the 2025 offseason come from contract renewals, rather than signing in the free market. It is obvious that today's free market has long lost the sense of the heat that military strategists must compete in the past.

And when it comes to renewing the contract, Thunder is even more crazy.

As the championship team of the 2024-25 season, the Thunder set up a contract renewal of up to 764 million yuan in one offseason, locking in the three main players in the team early on. The contract renewal cost of the Thunder team alone has exceeded half of the total amount of free-market players given to the entire 2025 team.

On the free agent list, there is only one player who actually switched teams and signed a contract of over 100 million: Myers Turner. It is enough to see the deserted situation in the free market.

The key to all this is mainly the second layer of hard cap rules implemented in 2024.

This new regulation strictly limits the operational space of powerful players when strengthening their non-own players. To put it simply, no matter how generous the boss is, he cannot hoard the stars as he pleases, so the team has begun to tend to renew the contract in advance instead of risking to compete for people in the free market.

On the other hand, players are more willing to choose to renew their contracts. The new version of the agreement allows them to sign longer and larger contracts on the original team. The best example is Jabbarry Smith, who chose to renew his contract with the Rockets early in June this year; looking further, Jaylen Johnson, Trey Murphy, and Shin Kyung also completed contract renewals before the contract year.

In just the first year of the implementation of the new labor-management agreement, 14 players completed rookie contract renewals, which is a very exaggerated number in history. And without this renewal craze, the free market this summer might have been a signing feast.

Imagine that Brunson, Antetokounm, Markcanen, Mitchell, Davis, Lillard, Butler, Gobert, Ingram, White, Zubac, and Caruso enter the free market at the same time. This is definitely a battle to subvert the alliance pattern. But the ultimate reality is that all of these people choose to sign long-term contracts with the team in advance.

According to statistics, 51 players have completed early renewal in the past three years, and 26 people have renewed their contracts in the 2024-25 season alone.

In comparison, from the six years between 2017 and 2023, there were only 74 people in total. The increase in the frequency of players renewal is visible to the naked eye.

Looking at the free market in the coming 2026, the situation is likely to be more cruel.

According to HoopsHype's prediction, Trae Young is the top free agent list in 2026. But strictly speaking, he is also very likely to renew his contract with Eagles before entering the market. After Trae Young, Durant will have the opportunity to become the top player in the free market.

But according to reports, he is also discussing early contract renewal with the Rockets.

In this way, the only thing that can really trigger the attention of the entire league in the summer of 2026 is probably the only familiar name left: LeBron James. His two-year contract will expire in the 25-26 season. If he does not plan to retire, he will naturally face the option of renewal.

Transfer to the Heat 16 years ago, James was the protagonist of the offseason; and 16 years later, he seems to be the biggest highlight in the market.

With the emergence of the second layer of hard upper limit, the era in the past that could rewrite the alliance pattern in just one summer may have really passed. For such a deserted market, it is not accidental, but future trends. And similar situations may continue to happen in the next few years.