The Rockets 7-1-time KD is questioned! Is it worth the 37-year-old giant worth of three new stars + two draws?

Text/Deep Basketball Analysis Group‌

💥‌Core Framework of the Trading Plan‌

According to the US media "Sports News", the Rockets and the Suns are discussing a shocking deal:

Rockets pay‌: Jaylen Green (starting point guard) + Tari Ethan (forward strongman) + Reed Shepard (rookie shooter) + ‌2 first round picks + 2 first round swap rights‌;

Suns return‌: 37-year-old Kevin Durant‌.

plan caused huge controversy - Greene sent by the Rockets averaged 19.6 points per game (potential new star), Ethan's offensive and defensive efficiency top 20%, Shepard's three-point shooting percentage was 42% (top shooter embryo), plus future assets, which were considered by experts to "overdraw the future bet on the present".

🌞 ‌Sun reconstruction logic: The new life of Booker's era‌

Dorant marks the complete reorganization of the Suns:

Core positioning‌: 28-year-old Devin Booker becomes the absolute core, paired with Bill (the veto power of transaction is difficult to move) to release space;

Asset recovery‌: Get back the control of the ‌Suns in the Rockets in the first round of 2025/2027/2029, avoid making a bad move for others‌;

Reservation‌: Green + Shepard make up for his backcourt talent, Ethan fills in the defensive shortcomings of the front line, and accelerates the reconstruction process‌.

Suns commented with the team reporter:

"If the transaction is reached, the Suns will have the initiative in drafting for nearly seven years. This is the ultimate goal of getting rid of Durant's contract."

⚖️ ‌The Rockets' big betting dilemma: value or loss? ‌

Supporter's view:

Durant still averaged 26 points + 42% three-point shooting percentage this season, which can help the Rockets star break through the bottleneck of the first round of the playoffs;

Shin Kyung + Amen Thompson and other six core members are retained, that is, their combat power leaps to the top four in the Western Conference.

Opponent criticized:

Age risk: Durant's Achilles tendon + ankle injury history plus 37 years old, the probability of his condition decline exceeds 60%;

chip premium: Compared with Antetokounmpo (peaker of 30 years old), this plan pays 2 extra first rounds + 1 main player ‌;

Future lock‌: All first round picks are lost before 2029, and once Durant retires, he will be in a long period of reconstruction.

🔄 ‌Game focus: The fatal temptation of the first round of picks‌

Rockets hold the control of the Suns in the first round of 2025/2027/2029, becoming the core leverage of trading:

Suns obsession‌: You must reclaim your sign to be safe (refer to the Nets reconstruction model);

Rockets bottom line‌: If you send three picks, the Suns need to add young assets (such as Allen), otherwise you will refuse to exchange.

Another solution circulated in the industry: The Rockets have Dillon + Whitmore + Three Suns have the first round to switch KD, and Green + Ethan is retained, but the Suns rejected it.

💎 ‌Potential Alternatives: Who is more worthy than KD? At the peak of 30 years old, if you apply for a deal, the Rockets will also be more cost-effective for 7-for-1 chips;

Mitchell (Cavs)

Rockets have planned to make a 7-for-1 plan (Green + Ethan + three first rounds), and the age (28 years old) has a lower risk;

Jaylen Brown (Celtics)

The first round asking price is too high, but the contract period (4 years) is more stable.

The Houston Chronicle warns:

"Exchange the future for Durant is like mortgage real estate stock speculation - if you win, you will win, you will win the championship, and if you lose, you will lose ten years of abyss!"

🏁 ‌final deduction: The Rockets management's dilemma ‌

If the transaction is reached, Durant + Van Vleet + Shen Jing constitutes the three giants, but the substitutes collapse deeply, and there will be no rebuilding chips after 2028;

If you give up KD:

Retain six sons + first round picks, and wait for the free market in 2026 (potential options for Antetokounmpo and Doncic).

executive revealed anonymously: "Uduka prefers to use Green+ to exchange Bridges in the first round rather than betting on the elderly and super giants." The lessons of history are vivid in my mind:

In 2013, the Nets bet on Nate/Pearce, ruining the future of 7 years; in 2020, the Lakers replaced the Dark Brow, but they won the championship but were overdrawn to this day. The Rockets' choice will define the honor and disgrace of the next decade. ‌