Saturday 001 Japanese Job Shonan Ocean VS Osaka Sakura

Pre-match situation and tactical analysis

Xiangnan Ocean: Offensive and defensive dilemma under relegation pressure

Points and fighting intentions: Xiangnan currently ranks third from the bottom, 3 points away from the safety zone, and the relegation situation is critical. However, the team has only won 2 league games in the last 6 games, and has lost 2 consecutive home games, and its morale is sluggish.

Lineup shortcomings: Main goalkeeper Naoto Fukumoto and defender Nao Takahashi have also suffered a long-term injury. Substitute goalkeeper Shun Yoshida has made frequent mistakes recently (conceding 6 goals in the last 3 games), and the success rate of high-altitude top-square-pointers on the defense line is only 52%. The tactical hidden dangers of crossing the wing against Osaka Sakura are significant.

Tactical Choice: The coach may continue the 4-3-3 formation and rely on the personal breakthrough of Brazilian striker Verlington (4 goals), but midfielder Kim Min-tae (averages 2.8 steals per game) has difficulty providing sufficient support. It is expected to adopt a defensive counterattack strategy, but the physical bottleneck may cause the team to concede the goal again after 60 minutes.

Osaka Sakura: Attacking the European War's balance

Points and status: Osaka Sakura, ranked 7th, is only 2 points away from the European War Zone, and is in a hot state recently (6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the last 10 games), including the Emperor's Cup 2-0 elimination of the Tokushima Vortex.

Core Player: The forward combination Rafael Raton (9 goals and 2 assists) and Jeon Jinmin (7 goals and 3 assists) are efficient in linking with the right-hand breakthrough success rate, and the success rate of the center Kompano (68 header success rate) poses a major offensive threat.

Tactical layout: It is expected to continue to use the 3-4-2-1 formation, and suppress the opponent through midfield ball control (56% per game ball control rate) and the wing. After left-back Takahashi Hitomi reimbursed for the season, Kobayashi Nagashu's cross from the wing (3.8 per game) became a key alternative.

Historical confrontation and psychological game

The two teams have played against each other in the last 10 times, with Osaka Sakura having the advantage of 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, and remained unbeaten against Shonan 3 wins and 2 draws away. The first round of this season, Osaka Sakura won 2-0 at home, with a clear psychological advantage of 13. Although Xiangnan defeated Osaka in February 2025, his opponent was at a low point at that time and the current situation was incomparable.

Key variables and score prediction

Injury and on-the-spot adjustment: If Xiangnan uses the young defense line (average age of 21), it may be difficult to withstand the impact of Kompano; Osaka Sakura may pass through the right-hand side Quan Jinmin's breakthrough cross, targeting Xiangnan's left-back Han Hyun-soo (slow return to defense).

Referee Scale: Referee Kim Dongjin is relatively loose in law enforcement (2.3 yellow cards per game), which is conducive to Osaka Sakura's physical confrontation (11.3 fouls per game), while Shonan's technical flow may be limited by 1.

Score speculation: Osaka Sakura is more stable on both ends of the offense and defense, and has strong ability to make a final effort (scoring 5 goals in the last 6 games), and is expected to win away 0-2 or 1-2. The goalkeeper of Shonan may be targeted to hit the target, and Osaka Sakura's cross-border + mid-lane grab point combination is expected to score.